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Down, Down, Deeper Down

So the whitewash did not happen, at least in the first instance, but given they have three days to appeal against the rulings, there is still plenty of time for AC Milan, Fiorentina, Juventus and Lazio to use their political persuasions and to rattle closets to see what skeletons rattle and emerge. The punishments issued to the four Italian clubs accused and found guilty of match fixing seem punitive, albeit without seeing all of the evidence it is hard to judge whether they are fair. Of one thing we can be certain and that is without doubt, this one is not over yet. Over the weekend, I would expect Lazio and Fiorentina to definitely appeal against the points deduction and relegation, particularly the former who have only recently returned to Serie A, albeit by apparently foul means. Juve have indicated that relegation to Serie B would be an “acceptable punishment”. Presumably they entered into some sort of plea – bargaining beforehand as it is a curious procedure to have the defendants declare what they would be happy as a result of admitting culpability. Milan have kept their own counsel thus far but may well attempt to reduce their penalty in some way.

Of the punishments, AC Milan were the only one of the four to escape relegation but they start next season with a 15 point deduction so for at least five weeks they will prop up the table – hardly a problem for them. Fiorentina and Lazio will be down a division with 12 and 7 point deductions for starters, neither of which should prevent them resurfacing in Serie A the season after next. However, Juve are on a 30 point deduction. Realistically this means they will have to get the equivalent of around 90 points in a normal season to gain promotion. Should they manage to hold onto the majority of their players, it would appear to be a huge task but not beyond them. None of the four will be on the list submitted by the Italian FA to UEFA for clubs participating in European Competition next season.

In addition to this, the back-to-back titles won by Juventus no longer exist. I have not seen mention of whom they have been handed to but given that Milan finished second, it is unlikely to be them. Could it be that Internazionale will end their long wait for a title, not so much by the backdoor more through the workings of a mysterious benefactor.

So what of the players? In most cases, the media frenzy will go into overdrive but I would be surprised if any of the Milanese left as a direct result of this verdict. After all, one season without European football is not the end of their world but it is possible that it could send some over the edge. It is also a useful verdict from their point of view as it gives Milan a little breathing space to find Shevchenko’s replacement without the added pressure of the Champions League. In the club’s eyes it may be an opportune moment to cash in on Kaka with Madrid his likely destination. Were Gattuso to become available, then I would strongly urge Arsene to move for him – he would form quite a formidable partnership with Fabregas in midfield. Yes, displacing Gilberto.

Juve though have the most to lose. Basing this purely on media comments made by the players, etc. – and we know how reliable they can be – I would expect Vieira, Thuram, Cannavaro, Ibrahimovic, Zambrotta, Camourensi and Trezeguet to move on. Buffon is by no means certain to leave although I would not be surprised to see him move to Internazionale or Roma. I would be absolutely delighted if he moved to Artsenal. No disrespect to Jens but this guy is arguably the best in the world and has another eight or nine years left in his career. Zambrotta could of course cause Ashley Cole to eat some humble pie by pitching up at Chelsea or Madrid. Perhaps he could even move to North London?

There could be a trio of experienced centre-halves with Nesta, Cannavaro and Thuram deciding that time in not on their side, although in Nesta’s case that would seem to be premature. Cannavaro could certainly be a good signing whilst Thuram would at 34, be a signing for a season of regular football with another as a “filler”.

Time will tell where any of these players will decide that their loyalties lie and in the eyes of the press, no doubt they will have all of their destinations decided by tomorrow morning, Sunday at the latest

 
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Modern Morality

Published on July 14, 2006 by in Arsenal

Contracts are made to be broken. I cannot remember who said it but they were not far wrong, especially if that Contract is about anything relating to footballers or managers. Since the Bosman Ruling, there appears to have been a marked willingness of players to do anything within their powers to break a contract, fair means or foul are perfectly acceptable. Not that the clubs are entirely blameless in this. They must on the one hand be cursing the Belgians for their stupidity in forcing the issue in the Bosman case but also be grateful, certainly in the upper echelons, for they have been perhaps the biggest recipients, able to afford players who may otherwise have broken their transfer budgets.

Ashley Cole seems to be falling into the category of contract rebel at the moment. The Sun has run with the story today that he has in what is being portrayed as a massive sulk, not invited Arsene Wenger to his nuptials this weekend. Now the power of the press is such that a negative story such as this will quickly gather pace but in this instance, it conveniently ignores the fact that there is a first team friendly at Barnet the same day. Where Cole is rapidly losing friends is his perpetuation of the myth that he is the injured party in the “Chelseagate” affair. This shows the same relationship with the truth that the Dailies have. Absolutely none. I have said it before and I will say it again. Ashley Cole is the only one to blame for the tapping up and the fines dished out. If he had any loyalty to his employers or contract, he would have instructed Jonathan Barnett not to speak with Chelsea unless Arsenal gave their approval, much less have turned up for a meeting in person. His new book, which will no doubt be a riveting read – born, went to school, signed for Arsenal, won the League, won the FA Cup, played for England, got fined for being a prat – is building publicity to generate sales. It is fairly obvious that the lad has a grudge against Arsenal (“They fed to me to the sharks to get back at Chelsea”) and contempt for the supporters otherwise he may have chosen to knuckle down and get on with his job, i.e. being fit, playing for the first team and helping them to win trophies. His agenda though is to be determined to have his move to Chelsea. To be honest, the club should say “Enough is Enough – They pay £20m or you are not going anywhere. Let your Agent do his job.” Will his signing for Chelsea make them invincible? No. He is not that important a player. He has the potential to be one of the great left-backs in the Game but he is not that much of an influence. Do not forget that the team made it to Paris with a minimal imput from him. Would he be missed? I am not completely convinced of this.

The problem that Cole has it that whilst he is the best left-back at the club at the moment, this may not necessarily be the case in a years time. Flamini is an able deputy whilst Clichy has impressed when called upon. Should Cole remain, he has a large number of bridges to build. He is not a fans favourite any longer, most are indifferent about him – if he were to lose form, I do not think it would be long before the majority got on his back. In much the same way that O’Leary has created a rod for his own back with habitual sniping, Cole is getting into the same boat. If he were to leave, would the grass be greener elsewhere. I doubt it for the damage done to his reputation will follow him for a damn sight longer than anything else.

 
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Todays Tunes – The Clash, Tribal Stomp Festival, Monterey 1979

Setlist is as follows:

I’m So Bored With The USA / Complete Control / London Calling / Jail Guitar Doors / White Man In Hammersmith Palais / Drug Stabbing Time / Police And Thieves / Stay Free / Capital Radio / Clash City Rockers / What’s My Name / Janie Jones / Garageland / Armagideon Time / Career Opportunities / I Keep My Fingernails Long (with Joe Ely) / White Riot.

Download it here.

 
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A Solid Bond In Your Heart?

Published on July 13, 2006 by in Arsenal

The Daily Telegraph today runs with a report, claiming to have seen the Bond Prospectus for re-financing the construction of Ashburton Grove. In a similar deal to the one that put Leeds United up a certain manure-filled creek without a paddle, the revenues from Matchday ticket sales are securitised against the Loan Repayments. In addition to this, other Revenues have been pledged to fill any shortfall if necessary.

In a nutshell, Securitisation is a widely used commercial activity that allows funds to be borrowed against future revenues. Football clubs that have used it the past have not been great advertisments for the product; Manchester City, Leicester City, Derby County and Leeds United are hardly in the rudest of health, some have been and are still close to the wall. Currently, there is one fundamental difference between Arsenal and those clubs; recent history. Over the past ten years, Arsenal have been the second most successful club in the land, successive qualifications for the Champions League bringing raised expectations rather than treating Europe as an occasional jolly. Should this deal go ahead, Champions League football is a must rather than an expectation, Quarter Finals probably a minimum to give the club the “comfort zone” that they are used to dealing in financially.

As part of this deal, Arsenal will have to pass a solvency test twice a year. This is from the lenders point of view a necessary check but for supporters and shareholders, it will also be an assurance that the Directors are not risking all on the back of the new Stadium. Indeed, should things be going well, in a few years time we will probably treat this with the customary shrug of the shoulders as it would be part of “Business As Usual”.

Ignoring the fact that well-known Spurs fan Mihir Bose has written the article, it does contain a concise breakout of what route the Board are following. Once you have got past the sensationalist narrative about the “Prawn Sandwich Brigade”, Bose’s style makes easy reading.

Salient pointers are that the club has forecast a net spend of transfers each season for the next three years of £12m, a mid-table finish means that 2009-10 to 2011-12 will see that spend drop to £5m per year. Given that over the past five years, the club has been habitually a low spending habitat, this is not much change. It is a dose of reality from the Board in many respects, proving that they realise that the survival of the club is more important than chasing a dream as Leeds found out. Do not get me wrong, I would not class a mid-table finish as acceptable but if that is the case, I would rather the Board saw the club survive and re-group than follow a Ridsdale-esque rollercoaster pursuing a dream.

Standard and Poor have rated the Bond as “AAA” making it a high quality bond. According to The Political Economy Of Football, this is only because it is insured otherwise it would be near worthless.

Interestingly, Bose asserts that the document shows 43% of total Ticket Receipts will come from the 9,253 supporters who have the luxury seating packages. This means that the average punter is putting in £33m next year, or £650 each, whilst the wealthy put in £43m or £4,600 each. This knocks on the head Sky Sports recent inference that Arsenal will be beyond the means of ordinary fans. I accept the amounts are not to sniffed at but by the same token they are nowhere near as high as being inferred in their report.

Arsenal Supporters Trust are generally supportive of the options but are quoted in the article as saying, “If future ticket income is not sufficient the Creditors can take over the club”. The quote is brief from them, and I am sure that they have more in-depth views – perhaps an example of a “space” issue in the paper? - but the new situation if accepted will not be much different in that respect as if the club default on the more expensive, existing loans the banks will own the club. It is the responsibility of the Directors to ensure that this situation does not arise, and the non-executive Directors to make sure that the checks and balances are in place to keep the club at the top.

 
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Yogis_Warrior - Arsenal Win The FA Cup On This Day, 21st May 2005 http://t.co/thTAJFfXIj 21 hours ago
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