Herbert Chapman – Football’s Greatest Manager

Was it the worst-best or best-worst result last night? I think the latter, anything but a Tottenham victory last night meant that they have to win at Stoke on Saturday and such is the paucity of The Orcs this season, that it looks a straightforward victory. As it is should Arsenal win their final matches of the season, that will be enough to finish in the top four, may even be enough to finish third. Even one win might be enough such is the superiority of Arsenal’s goal difference.

Two wins from the last two games is within the capabilities of the squad. Wigan cannot be relegated by the time of kick-off at The Emirates on Tuesday but victories for Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland will make that a distinct probability. Three points for The Barcodes at Loftus Road would certainly make life easier a week on Sunday for Arsenal, opponents who have nothing to play for are often – not always – supine in their mentality, especially at the releasing of pressure as would be the case with their safety ensured.

The nature of football is such that you are always reliant upon slips by rivals, whether you are close to landing the title, fighting relegation or trying to finish as high in the table as possible; some scenarios leave you more dependent on their failings than others. Even then your own form requires that you take advantage of their mistakes or inability to accumulate enough points to compensate for tough fixtures in the run-in.

Part of that improved form has been recognised with Aaron Ramsey being a clear winner of the club’s Player of the Month award. The Welsh international has filled the role of cartoon villain, the scapegoat for the inconsistent form of the squad. Most of that came as he played out of position, subsuming his own ego for the betterment of the team and taking the flak for performances which were considered sub-standard.

Playing in his favoured central midfield role, Ramsey has covered more miles than an AA repair van as Arsenal have become masters of their own destiny. It is a remarkable turnaround where his detractors have been relegated to the role of troll whilst he finds appreciation of his work. A similar path was trodden by Alex Song following a disastrous performance at Craven Cottage to one where he was pivotal to the side last season.

It is not fanciful to talk of a midfield built around Ramsey and Wilshere in the future, one where an outright attacking midfielder of Rosicky’s ilk in the current formation or as the central pairing in a quartet.

And I suppose that this is the point where I am to eulogise over the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson. Yes, he is the most successful manager in the English game to date but contrary to the media, he is not the greatest. His enduring legacy is for Manchester United only, nothing which has changed football beyond his own club. It is more a signal of the eradication of football’s history in the Sky era that Herbert Chapman has been all but forgotten in spite of being more visionary than Ferguson, foreseeing changes that impacted the game as a whole.

The Manchester United manager would have replaced Don Howe had the Arsenal board got their way. Before his fall from Grace, Graham’s record stood comparison to Ferguson in terms of trophy hauls. Where the latter offered a better long-term bet was the overhauling of the backroom staff and set-up in the early years of his reign. The Roll of Honour shows some sort of equality but Graham had lost his way, events taking the chance to return to his footballing roots, if he could at all.

As for future, maybe this Summer will be trickier for Arsenal with United looking for players in similar positions. Rumours of Ronaldo and Rooney moving will deflect away from Everton’s fire sale if Moyes leaves for Old Trafford. Marouane Fellaini has long been considered the type of midfielder Arsenal should sign; gossip has his path to London ending in a more So’ Westerly direction. Baines linkage with United may eventually come to fruition, to the chagrin of some.

New commercial deals and vaunted budgets tell us that Arsenal will have significant activity this transfer window. You would hope so, one where Arsenal might have a free run at some of their targets without losing key players. That tells you more about the current squad than anything else; there are no ‘stars’ of world football and with the consistency of the Premier League run since defeats to Chelsea and Manchester City, that is no mean feat. We should not however, ignore the weaknesses on display before January.

If anyone does not understand the difference in financial muscle between United and Arsenal. The former may lose their most influential and highest paid player. And replace him with one who will no doubt cost more to buy and demand a higher salary.

’til Tomorrow.

Oi, Puma! It isn’t hard to design an Arsenal kit

Arsenal prepare for the biggest game of the rest of their season tonight by pottering around the training pitches in the Hertfordshire countryside. Chelsea and Tottenham meet at Stamford Bridge barely twenty-four hours after the pressure told on Andre Villas-Boas. It’s been a while since we’ve had a managerial meltdown so anything which provides something similar brings a giggle to the surface. Some, of course, chastised Wojciech Szczesny for his original comments; they would, the logic went, be inspirational to the Tottenham side, have carried out Villas-Boas’ teamtalk for him. If Tottenham need inspiration from the comments of an Arsenal player prior to a match which could all but decide their fate for next season’s European football, something is even more seriously wrong at White Hart Lane than the Pole suggested.

And that’s before Chelsea read Villas-Boas’ derogatory comments about their playing style. You see normally such jibes would be ignored but you sense this is his path to a Keegan.

Pressure? It struck me that Arsenal supporters were feeling it more than anyone, manifesting in a meltdown following the Premier League’s appointment of Mike Dean as the match official for the visit of Wigan to The Emirates next week. Apparently, Arsenal have won once in the last twenty matches in which he has officiated. Looking at our record in encounters with top four clubs, that is not hard to believe but do you really think he is the root cause of it? Get. A. Grip.

In an otherwise quiet week, the media has announced that Arsenal have signed a new kit deal with Puma, rumoured to be worth £30m per season. Daily Heil headline writers did their Poster Boy, Michael Gove, proud with their mathematical genius but I suppose £34m (£170m over 5 years before you ask) is just too accurate. The new deal – which will not officially be confirmed for some time yet due to a confidentiality clause – is the biggest in English football (until Manchester United’s next one, that is). The current Nike deal expires at the end of next season so Puma has a year to get their inaugural kits right. So, remember, that’s red shirts, white sleeves, red cuffs, white collar, for the shirts; white shorts; red socks for a home kit. The away, well, do yourselves a favour, win over the supporters with a yellow top with blue collar and cuffs; blue shorts; yellow socks. Nothing fancy; do away with your flashes, slashes, stripes, hopes and sashes; K.I.S.S.

In the meantime, I shall comfort myself with the numerous photoshopped kits that will circulate as the real deal, watching with vague amusement at the meltdowns which occur when they are dismissed routinely as just a Puma international kit changed to Arsenal colours. It’s a high pressure job being a football fan…

You know it’s a quiet time when a kit deal is the best Arsenal news around.

The only other part of that deal which matters is the money and the competitiveness it brings the club in the transfer market. Gradually deals are being struck that enable Arsenal to sign and as importantly, retain key players so that we do not face constant Summer speculation about who is leaving. Whether there is a mind to pay the higher salaries is another matter, a business philosophy discussion. First of all, the club needs to be in the position to think of the alternatives to selling players to be profitable, even if that is a part and parcel of a football club’s normal business cycle.

And where there is money, there shall be transfer speculation; that is the Gospel according to the football writer. This morning’s fare is a bit, well, disappointing. Where’s my Capoue? Not a whiff of M’Vila? In the name of our Lord, John Cross, please let me see something about Lewandowski!

I mean Ashley Williams is, I am sure, a jolly nice bloke and judging by his performances over the last season or so, a reliable performer, just the sort of player that Arsenal should be looking at to strengthen the squad and at £10m, decently priced. But where, oh, where is my £30m+ signing? According to the Italian media, heading north to Turin from Florence, he says hastily scrabbling for the atlas to make sure his geography isn’t askew. Phew!

Come on, you had twelve hours to get something interesting going. Sigh. Well, I suppose it is all about pacing yourself and facing a Summer without an international tournament of any note, there’s plenty of time yet. Maybe we supporters should recreate the scene from The Italian Job (the proper one not the Hollywood rip-off) where we bang our cutlery on the table, chanting the name of our favourite target instead of saluting Mr Bridger as he regally descended the stairs.

’til Tomorrow.

Ivan has his FFP Aretha moment: I say a little prayer for youuuuuu

It could only happen in football. Barefaced cheek or ‘more front than Sainsbury’s’ how we would describe it. Only in football.

I have long-held the view that Uefa’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations are not going to achieve anything beyond making the rich clubs positions in the Champions League more secure. Laudable though the aims are, sensible even, as with everything in football, FFP has become a hotchpotch of rules and disallowables whereby a £200m loss can be viewed as a marginal failure to meet the rolling targets. And in any case, so long as £200m becomes £180m next season, there is no reason to worry because the loss is heading towards break-even so everyone is happy.

Except the agents.

And one of them has decided that enough is enough. Break-even equates to FFP – and all the domestic equivalents – curbing his ability to earn money since there will be transfer fee stagnation at the very best. Heaven forbid he might have to get a proper job. Never fear, Dupont is here. The man who made Jean-Marc Bosman a household surname, has flicked his peek-a-boo roots, re-applied the white stripe across his nose and proclaimed himself the dandy highwayman who will save the day. That previous ruling saw the seismic power-shift from club to player, contributing significantly to the salaries on offer now and the rampant transfer fee inflation in the past two decades. There was a balance to be had, you had to look quickly to see it as we ploughed past it at the speed of light.

Uefa probably thought that getting the EU to sanction this scenario was enough but they had not reckoned with the greed of Man. Or to what depths football agents will stoop to ensure that they get paid beyond leaching from players salaries. 20% of an ongoing wage? If the players are stupid enough to pay it, that is their lookout, I suppose.

It rather puts Arsenal’s hopes in a different light. FFP is the saviour, the moment the club was going to see its sensible business model bear fruit. But in football, commonsense is a commodity in short supply, heavily outweighed by greed. Most likely, Arsenal will not be able to compete with Manchester United in the foreseeable future, even with a dramatic shifting in fortunes. Their revenues continue to far outstrip Arsenal’s and most likely, always will. As a result they will always be able to top any wage offer made to a player in a direct competition between the two clubs. Even then the underlying problem will be signing the players in the first place with the respective spending power diverging. This Summer will see if Arsenal are in the next tier down; will they spend the cash available or are the philosophies which curtailed the transfer dealings whilst Ashburton Grove was being built, now so ingrained that they are the club’s natural way of thinking?

That is FFP at its basest level for supporters; transfer spend. And to be honest, that is all the average fan cares about in those terms. Can Arsenal build a squad through purchases, mixed with existing and younger players coming through. Too often the demand for spending is reduced to soundbites, wanting players we know the club cannot afford to sign. Arsène was absolutely right in last Summer’s window, replacing van Persie with one player was impractical, two have more or less sufficed. That has turned a perceived weakness – reliance on one player – into a strength with a number of scorers contributing to a similar goals tally. This time around, demands are made to sign a player who will cost the same as last year’s total spend. They strike me as fanciful as the notion that the squad does not need strengthening.

Arsenal have promulgated a theory that the Promised Land is around the corner. We do not know what the transfer budget is, the issue clouded because (rightly) Arsenal will not announce their budget and it is a sum of money mixed with contract renewals. The received wisdom is £70m is available, an educated guess from other sources. The power of the internet is identified with the ready acceptance of this amount. Whether it is true or not, we shall see. It is believable because we want it to be true, the club permitting the perception of wealth with new commercial deals which we are told are front-loaded with cash. A dangerous backlash awaits if this proves to be a false notion, you can see it coming.

Jean-Louis Dupont argues that football will restrict owner investment. There are plenty who show that the investment models lead to the competitive imbalance he rails against; Manchester City with their unholy losses to Malaga where the failure of their wealthy owners to pay bills has led to a Uefa ban. Arguably, Kroenke (and by extension, Usmanov) are pointless club owners; Arsenal could be owned by anyone so long as they followed the current business model, with problems only arising if it failed. If Uefa’s nemesis is once more successful in his fight, Arsenal will once more find themselves mired in a fight against overwhelming wealth. What then for either major shareholder?

’til Tomorrow.

Or Faith In The Keep, if you like

The defining moment in this season’s chase for the Champions League has been deferred a little longer, Chelsea claiming all three points at Old Trafford puts a different emphasis on their clash with Tottenham on Wednesday. Having moved three points clear of their upcoming opponents and with a superior goal difference, the match has shifted from must-win to must-not-lose for Chelsea. That underlines Tottenham’s dilemma; they have to win because of the paucity of their goalscoring record. Take out Gareth Bale’s twenty goals and they have scored a paltry forty-one goals in the Premier League this season. As Andre Villas-Boas points out, they are not a one-man team. No…

Beyond that match, it is hard to see any of the three teams dropping points. Next weekend’s fixtures see Chelsea visit Aston Villa and Tottenham travel to Stoke. Those two are not yet entirely safe, although it would take an incredible set of results in the next fortnight to see either relegated. Victory for Middle Earth’s favourite team at the Stadium of Light tonight would put a different complexion on their game at the weekend; Stoke have struggled this season against the top sides. Previously they have managed to beat one of them but so far, have not looked like doing so. There is little reason to believe that they will improve on their record of three draws in these fixtures.

Arsenal can only be concerned with their own performances. In fact, it isn’t even that, results are all that matter now. Becoming difficult to breach defensively has given the team a good platform upon which to build. Perversely, it has led to a neutering of the goalscoring instinct which hints that as much as Arsène is going to be busy in the transfer market this Summer, he has some issues to work out on the training ground.

Much of the defensive focus has been on the central pairing of Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny, with the sub-plot of Thomas Vermaelen’s form providing the twisting backdrop. Undoubtedly, the former duo establishing a settled understanding and finding form at the right time, has been a huge factor. Previously, it was unthinkable that Wenger would drop his captain but the decision this season has proven to be courageous and in that sense, worked. Whatever the reasons for the Belgian’s continued downward spiral in the pecking order, he has the motivation to recover that form this Summer, knowing that another centre back arriving would add pressure to the battle for the starting places. I think that inevitable with Squillaci’s departure. Miquel has a good future at the club and whilst he will undoubtedly feature in the domestic Cups next season, it is debatable whether he is ready for anything more than a cameo in the senior competitions.

A harder choice comes next week, if Arsène’s last injury update was correct. The tussle for the goalkeeper’s jersey has been interesting in recent weeks. Lukasz Fabianski started in Munich and his performance far exceeded the low expectations of supporters. As the latter grew, so did his confidence culminating in an outstanding late block against Norwich with the game not yet won. Injury allowed Wojciech Szczesny to return and since then, his performances have improved. Like his compatriot, he produced a late, points-winning save, this time at QPR which gives the manager a tough choice to make for Wigan.

Thomas Vermaelen made a brief cameo against Norwich but Wenger’s ruthlessness saw Mertesacker restored for the visit of Everton. It is different this time, Szczesny has come into the side and only been beaten by His penalty last Sunday. Fabianski though, might rightly feel aggrieved if he is not restored to the side having done nothing wrong previously. Were he not to return, that would give the biggest sign of his intentions towards the older of the two Poles for next season. Fabianski’s contract is running down, ending in 2014. Based on previous transfer activity, the club will probably sell now and take a small fee rather than waiting for him to walk away.

You sense that his injury has the potential to be Almunia-esque. Seemingly out for a short while, the Spaniard quietly left the club. The timing of Fabianski’s blow to the ribs could not have been better. It sounded innocuous enough for him to return if Szczesny dropped a rickett in his absence, serious enough for complete rest if, as the manager expected, the younger Pole came back fully motivated and returning to form. That worked out for Wenger, Szczesny has returned motivated and seemingly in good form.

Confidence is fickle attribute in footballers, easily lost and hard to regain. The impact of being dropped again might be more damaging in the longer term for Szczesny as it looks more and more like the original rotation was designed to be a wake-up call rather than an actual reflection of his culpability in goals conceded. It would no surprise to see him continue in goal for the remainder of the season. If that is the case and Fabianski does move on in the Summer, at least he can do so with his head held high. A happier ending than it might otherwise have been.

’til Tomorrow.